PM's Panel is bullish on Indian economy but with caution
The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, headed by former Reserve Bank governor C Rangarajan has observed and also recommended following measures.
- Riding an investment boom, the Indian economy will grow 9% in the current fiscal on top of last year’s 9.4% growth and price rise will be contained at 4%.
- The economy’s managers will have to make some tough choices like curbing the inflow of external debt, allowing the rupee to appreciate further and removing “administrative and procedural impediments” to acquisitions abroad. It sees the external environment as still being benign and expects sustained investment to keep growth booming. The need to curb capital inflows comes from the mismatch between the current account deficit, which is seen at $17.4 billion, and surpluses on the capital account (nearly $58 billion). The excess inflow of foreign capital can make the rupee far too strong; managing this would mean jacking up money supply which could harden inflation and eventually interest rates. A sensible policy response is to allow all these three things to happen in moderate doses and to discourage external borrowing for rupee expenditure.
- The council is not in favour of disrupting foreign equity investments. “Equity investment by its very nature is high risk and policy continuity is an essential element to initiate and maintain such flows. They cannot be turned on and off at will. However, on the debt side, there are some areas that can do with some scrutiny,” it said.
- The panel suggested three instruments to face the strong capital flow: allowing the rupee to appreciate, sterilising capital inflows in excess of what can be absorbed into reserves without pushing money supply growth above 17.5%; and instituting a policy of encouraging capital outflow and discouraging external borrowing for rupee expenditure.
- The report pegged farm growth at 2.5%; industrial output at 10.6%; and services at 10.4%. Mr Rangarajan cautioned that unless the farm and power sectors grow, the current rate of economic growth cannot be sustained. “Food security is an extremely important issue. Agriculture should be priority, as 60% people are dependent on it.”
- The Council expects that there will be no unemployment by 2010, if not earlier. Whether people are satisfied with their remuneration or not is a different matter, panel's chairman C Rangarajan qualified promptly. "The unadjusted employment elasticity for the latest period (1999-2000 to 2004-05) is 0.48. Even after adjusting sectoral elasticities to lower figures, it is seen that with a GDP growth rate of 8%, by 2010 the workforce will become equal to the labour force. A stronger growth rate, which is quite possible, will take economy to this point even in a shorter period. Economic growth has been a major driving force in achieving higher level of employment," EAC's Economic Outlook 2007-08 said.
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